The short answer: According to a report cited by the California Post on October 3, 2026, Measure ULA, Los Angeles’s so-called mansion tax, has blocked the construction of 9,100 homes, wiped out 16,650 full-time construction jobs, and cost $452 million in lost government revenue. It raised about $1.2 billion against the $2.7 billion voters were told to expect over its first three years. About 1,000 of the blocked homes would have been affordable units, the very thing the tax was created to produce. The tax was born from a genuine crisis and real compassion. But the numbers are in, and they point one direction: repeal it.
Last updated: October 4, 2026
I want to say something upfront. My name is Stephen White. I’m a Los Angeles realtor who moved here from the East Coast, and I’ve called LA home going on 20 years. In that time, I’ve watched this city try to solve homelessness with big intentions and fuzzy math. This week, the math came due, and the numbers tell a story you need to hear.
I am not writing this to dunk on anyone’s intentions. Homelessness in Los Angeles is a real crisis, and I want to see it solved as much as anyone who lives here.
But there is a difference between wanting to help and actually helping. When a program takes billions from taxpayers and produces a fraction of what it promised, while actively destroying the housing it was meant to create, the kind thing to do is say so out loud. That is what this post is.
What is the mansion tax, and why was it created?
In November 2022, voters in the City of Los Angeles passed Measure ULA, officially the Homelessness and Housing Solutions Tax, with 57.77% of the vote. It was a citizen initiative drafted by the United to House LA coalition, an alliance of labor unions, tenant advocates, and affordable housing groups.
Starting April 1, 2023, it added a transfer tax on property sales inside city limits: 4% on sales over $5 million and 5.5% on sales over $10 million (the thresholds have since risen with inflation to about $5.4 million and $10.9 million). Every dollar was earmarked for affordable housing production and homelessness prevention.
The pitch was simple and emotionally powerful: make millionaires and billionaires pay to house people. Voters were told it would raise $600 million to $1.1 billion a year. Los Angeles had tens of thousands of unhoused residents, and the moral logic felt airtight. Tax luxury home sales to house people. Who could argue with that?
As it turns out, the math could.
What does the new report actually say?
The California Post reported on October 3, 2026 on new research, including analysis from the RAND Corporation, and the findings are brutal:
- 9,100 homes blocked. That is how many new homes researchers estimate were never built because of the tax.
- About 1,000 of those would have been affordable units. Read that twice. The tax destroyed roughly a thousand affordable homes, the exact thing it was created to produce.
- 16,650 full-time construction jobs wiped out. Those are working-class jobs, held by the very Angelenos this city claims to protect.
- $452 million in lost government revenue. Fewer sales and less building mean less money flowing to public agencies across the board.
- $1.2 billion raised versus $2.7 billion promised over the tax’s first three years. Less than half of what voters were sold.
- High-value property sales fell 31% through early 2026, with apartment and commercial sales down more than 46%.
Photo: Pexels
Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, put it plainly: the measure has a noble aspiration, but a transfer tax adds friction to the housing market and slows transactions. Builders already dealing with high labor and material costs look at an extra 4 to 5.5% bite at closing and walk away from deals that no longer pencil out.
And here is the part that stings. The city has barely spent what it collected. As of May, only about $114 million had been spent, less than 10% of the money raised. Of the money that did move, $55.5 million went toward preserving 3,713 existing affordable units rather than building new ones, and some of those buildings have serious problems. Tenants of one recipient building sued in 2024 alleging bedbugs, cockroaches, rats, sewage leaks, and human waste. The nonprofit running several of them has lost $27.8 million since 2022.
To be fair, and fairness matters, not every researcher blames the tax alone. Analysts at Occidental College argue broader economic conditions, like high interest rates, help explain the multifamily slowdown. UCLA’s Michael Manville, who studied roughly 338,000 LA County property sales with USC’s Mott Smith, accounted for rates and still found the tax sharply deterred transactions above its threshold. His summary: it is “robbing Peter to pay Paul.” If you deter hundreds or thousands of market-rate units in the process, he said, you have not helped affordability.
This was never just a tax on mansions
The nickname was always misleading. The tax applies to apartment buildings, office buildings, warehouses, and vacant land, anything that sells above the thresholds inside city limits. And it is levied on the gross sale price, not the profit. Sell at a loss and you still pay.
One Brentwood property shows how it plays out. It sold for about $5.3 million in February 2023, weeks before the tax took effect. The buyer tore down the original house and built a new 8,990-square-foot home with a pool, screening room, and guest house. After three price cuts it sits listed at $15.995 million. If it sells there, the ULA bill is about $880,000, on top of everything else.
It gets worse. On the Westside, even modest older houses can trip the threshold on land value alone. A 2,000-square-foot house that nobody would call a mansion can carry a $5.5 million price tag because of the dirt it sits on, and the tax hits it the same.
There is also a hidden cost most people miss. In California, a property is reassessed to its current market value when it changes ownership. Fewer sales mean fewer reassessments, which means less property tax revenue for the city year after year. The tax does not just take a cut of today’s sales. It shrinks tomorrow’s tax base.
Where I stand
Let me be direct about what I believe, because I know this topic gets heated.
I believe in helping the homeless. Los Angeles is my home, and this county’s well-being is personal to me. I believe taxpayers deserve government programs that are measured, regulated, and accountable for results. Good intentions are not results, and compassion without accountability is just expensive theater.
I also believe we should not overtax the people who make a difference in this city. The developers, builders, tradespeople, and property owners who build housing, create jobs, and keep this city’s economic engine running are not the enemy. When we punish them, the punishment lands on everyone else: fewer homes, fewer jobs, higher prices, and a homelessness crisis that gets worse instead of better.
As developer Barry Cassily said about ULA: “You are taxing housing to pay for housing.” That sentence should end the debate.
Why it should be repealed
One clarifying note: this is a City of Los Angeles tax, not a countywide one. When I say it should be abolished, I mean repealed in the city, and kept from ever spreading further. Here is the case, as plainly as I can make it:
It destroys what it claims to create. Roughly 1,000 affordable homes that would have existed do not, because of a tax meant to fund affordable homes.
It killed 16,650 jobs. Construction work is honest, skilled, working-class work. Those paychecks fed families in this city.
It raised less than half the promised money, and the city barely spent it. Under 10% spent as of May. You cannot call that an emergency response.
Even its champions want it changed. Councilwoman Nithya Raman, who championed the tax, proposed exempting newly built apartment, commercial, and mixed-use projects for 15 years, admitting that “a policy that unintentionally stalls housing production ultimately undermines the very goals voters asked us to achieve.” Her proposal never made the ballot. Mayor Bass tried to rewrite it in Sacramento, then pulled the bill.
Repeal would unlock the market. More sales, more reassessments, more property tax revenue, more construction, more jobs. The city’s own data makes this argument.
Photo: Pexels
I am a real person, not a politician, and I am not pretending repeal fixes homelessness by itself. It does not. But keeping a tax that blocks 9,100 homes while 1,000 affordable units vanish is not compassion. It is stubbornness. Los Angeles deserves programs that work, measured in homes built and people housed, not dollars collected and press releases issued.
The story needed to be told. Now the city needs to act on it.
If you own property anywhere in Los Angeles County and you are wondering what it is actually worth in this market, start with real numbers, not last year’s headlines.
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Frequently asked questions
Does the mansion tax apply in Calabasas or Hidden Hills?
No. Measure ULA applies only to property inside the City of Los Angeles. Calabasas, Hidden Hills, Beverly Hills, and other independent cities are not affected. If you sell a property inside LA city limits above the thresholds, it applies.
Is the tax calculated on the profit or the full sale price?
The full sale price. It is a transfer tax, so a property sold at a loss is taxed the same as one sold at a gain. On a $6 million sale, the 4% tax is $240,000 regardless of what the seller paid or cleared.
Would repealing the tax hurt homeless programs?
The tax has raised about $1.2 billion and the city had spent less than 10% of it as of May 2026. The honest debate is not between this tax and nothing. It is between a tax that blocks housing and a better-designed program that is measured by homes built and people housed.
Has anyone in city leadership admitted there is a problem?
Yes. Councilwoman Raman, who championed the measure, proposed a 15-year exemption for new apartment, commercial, and mixed-use projects, saying a policy that stalls housing production undermines voters’ goals. Mayor Bass also attempted a rewrite in Sacramento before pulling it.
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Stephen White
Luxury Estates Director, Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California
I’m Stephen White, a Los Angeles realtor who moved here from the East Coast going on 20 years ago. I help luxury buyers and sellers across Los Angeles make their move with about 20 years of experience and $128M in career sales behind them.
310.701.9747 | [email protected] | whiteluxuryhomes.com
DRE 02009880 | Brokerage DRE 01527644
Sources: California Post, “LA’s ‘mansion tax’ backfires spectacularly as thousands of homes and jobs vanish,” October 3, 2026 (citing RAND Corporation analysis; quotes from Joel Berner, Realtor.com; Michael Manville, UCLA; Jason Oppenheim); Wikipedia, “Measure ULA” (passed November 8, 2022, 57.77% yes; effective April 1, 2023; $1.2B raised over three years vs. $0.6–1.1B annual projection); Los Angeles Housing Department ULA Exemptions FAQ (4% over $5M, 5.5% over $10M, inflation-adjusted thresholds).
